Which is better growth or value investing?
For example, value stocks tend to outperform during bear markets and economic recessions, while growth stocks tend to excel during bull markets or periods of economic expansion. This factor should, therefore, be taken into account by shorter-term investors or those seeking to time the markets.
Growth stocks generally perform better during bull markets, when interest rates are falling, and when corporate earnings are trending up. However, during economic slowdowns, growth tends to lag behind value. Similarly, value tends to outperform growth during bear markets and in the early stages of economic recovery.
Additionally, value funds don't emphasize growth above all, so even if the stock doesn't appreciate, investors typically benefit from dividend payments. Value stocks have more limited upside potential and, therefore, can be safer investments than growth stocks.
We expect lackluster global earnings growth with downside for equities from current levels.” Against this backdrop, value stocks have a strong chance of outperforming their growth counterparts in 2024.
The choice to focus on either value ETFs or growth ETFs comes down to personal risk tolerance. Growth ETFs may have higher long-term returns but come with more risk. Value ETFs are more conservative; they may perform better in volatile markets but can come with less potential for growth.
Value dominance tends to assert itself when inflation is high, economic growth is strong and rates are elevated. By contrast, Growth stocks often outperform when inflation is low, economic growth is relatively weak and rates are low and falling.
Traditionally, growth investors focus on companies that increase their sales or earnings quickly, while value investors focus on stocks that trade at low valuation multiples. Buffett thinks value and growth are two variables in the same calculation, meaning investors shouldn't prioritize one over the other.
The intrigue deepens when we consider the anticipated decline in interest rates for 2024. According to conventional wisdom, this should herald another favorable year for growth stocks relative to value. Yet, the lessons from 2023 remind us that markets are unpredictable, and historical patterns may not always hold.
A common perception is that value stocks are more cyclical and therefore more vulnerable to economic downturn. We find that this conventional wisdom is false: empirical evidence shows that value stocks actually tend to outperform in recessions. Value stocks have the charm of low expectations.
Historical data indicates that value stocks have provided stable long-term returns and outperformed growth stocks in certain periods. In contrast, growth stocks have shown potential for higher short-term returns but with more volatility and risks.
Is growth or value better long term?
Historically, value investing has outperformed growth investing over the long term. Growth investing, however, has been shown to outperform value investing more recently.
Name | Price | Analyst Price Target |
---|---|---|
T AT&T | $16.81 | $20.88 (24.21% Upside) |
INTC Intel | $34.50 | $44.00 (27.54% Upside) |
MU Micron | $111.78 | $132.00 (18.09% Upside) |
CSCO Cisco Systems | $48.35 | $53.67 (11.00% Upside) |
Value premiums have often shown up quickly and in large magnitudes. For example, in years when value outperformed growth, the average premium was nearly 15%. On average, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by 4.4% annually in the US since 1927, as Exhibit 1 shows.
Ticker | Fund | 10-Yr Return |
---|---|---|
VGT | Vanguard Information Technology ETF | 19.60% |
IYW | iShares U.S. Technology ETF | 19.58% |
IXN | iShares Global Tech ETF | 18.20% |
IGM | iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF | 17.95% |
The question of which investing style is better depends on many factors, since each style can perform better in different economic climates. Growth stocks may do better when interest rates are low and expected to stay low, while many investors shift to value stocks as rates rise.
It might be tempting to dabble with exotic or offbeat investments in the short term. But if you're looking to beat the S&P 500 over the long haul, one ETF stands apart: Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).
- DaVita Inc. ( ticker: DVA)
- DraftKings Inc. ( DKNG)
- Extra Space Storage Inc. ( EXR)
- First Solar Inc. ( FSLR)
- Gen Digital Inc. ( GEN)
- Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT)
- Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA)
- SoFi Technologies Inc. ( SOFI)
Risks of value investing
However, value investing does have unique risks. First, there's company risk. Value stocks may have serious flaws—a stock is probably undervalued for a reason. Prudent investors will want to become familiar with all of a company's strengths and weaknesses.
Value stocks are considered relatively less risky compared to growth stocks. They are typically more stable and have lower volatility. The potential for capital appreciation may be moderate, but they often offer steady income through dividends.
We find reliable evidence that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times when the expected market risk premium is high, and to a lesser extent, growth stocks are riskier than value stocks in good times when the expected market risk premium is low.
Can a stock be both growth and value?
Stocks are always fully represented by the combination of their growth and value weights. For example, a stock that is given a 20% weight in a Russell value index will have an 80% weight in the corresponding Russell growth index.
Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
---|---|
SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN) | 177.8% |
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 180.4% |
Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
---|---|
10 years (2014-2023) | 11.02% |
15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
25 years (1999-2023) | 7.18% |
- Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) ...
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) ...
- Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) ...
- Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) ...
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) ...
- Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) Number of Q4 2023 Hedge Fund Shareholders: 141. ...
- Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
Key Takeaways. During a recession, most investors should avoid investing in companies that are highly leveraged, cyclical, or speculative, as these companies pose the biggest risk of doing poorly during tough economic times.