How are REITs performing in 2023?
With the Federal Reserve signaling the end of its tightening policy and teasing potential rate cuts in 2024, the Nareit All Equity REIT Index posted total returns of 8.9% in December and finished 2023 up 11.4%.
According to expert panelists at the recent Nareit REITworld annual conference, 2024 could be a year of opportunity for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They added a note of caution, however, that there are still headwinds affecting investor perspectives on REITs and capital markets in general.
With rate cuts on the horizon, many publicly traded REITs have rebounded, and the industry as a whole seems well-poised for a recovery in the coming year. Ultimately, the decision on whether or not to buy REITs will depend on the specific circ*mstances and risk tolerance of each investor.
The global REIT market is experiencing steady growth. According to the recent market reports, the market size is reaching an impressive $3.5 trillion in 2022 and is estimated to reach USD 4.2 trillion by 2027, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8% from 2022.
The jump came after a poor performance in the prior quarter when the Dow Jones Equity All REIT Index recorded a negative 8.4% return. The strong fourth quarter carried over to an 11.3% return for 2023 as a whole for the REIT-focused index, underperforming the S&P 500's 26.3% return for the year.
The value of a REIT is based on the real estate market, so if interest rates increase and the demand for properties goes down as a result, it could lead to lower property values, negatively impacting the value of your investment.
Because REITs use debt to purchase investments, rising interest rates could mean these companies would have to pay more interest on future loans. This could in turn reduce their return on investment. Because of this, REITs could potentially lose value when interest rates rise.
REITs should generally be considered long-term investments
This is especially true if you're planning to invest in non-traded REITs since you won't be able to easily access your money until the REIT lists its shares on a public exchange or liquidates its assets. In many cases, this can take around 10 years to occur.
Right now, REITs (VNQ) are at an inflection point and time is running out for investors. But now as we head into 2024, we expect the polar opposite and this should lead to an epic recovery across the REIT sector. The Fed expects at least 3 interest rate cuts in 2024 and the market is predicting even more.
A lot of REIT investors focus too way much on the dividend yield. They think that a high dividend yield implies that a REIT is cheap and a good investment opportunity. In reality, it is often the opposite, and the dividend does not say much, if anything, about the valuation of a REIT.
Is Warren Buffett buying REITs?
He and Charlie Munger, vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, actively dismissed it for many years. However, Buffett has recently invested in REITs as part of his passive income strategy.
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
REIT Performance
Equity REITs averaged a -5.72% total return over the first month of 2024, badly underperforming the broader market as the NASDAQ (+1.0%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.3%) and S&P 500 (+1.7%) all finished the month in the black.
The valuation divergence between REITs and private real estate will likely converge in 2024, making REITs an attractive option for investors. Solid balance sheets will enable REITs to navigate ongoing economic uncertainty while providing an advantage in terms of acquisitions and growth.
In fact, REIT total returns bounced back with impressive performance in the last quarter of 2023. Based on historical experience, the convergence of the wide valuation gap between public and private real estate will likely ensure continued REIT outperformance into 2024.
During the past 25 years, REITs have delivered an 11.4% annual return, crushing the S&P 500's 7.6% annualized total return in the same period. Image source: Getty Images. One reason for REITs' outperformance is their dividends.
Mumbai: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) listed on domestic stock exchanges have largely been forgettable bets for many investors in 2023 so far as a delay in the pick-up in commercial real estate, a slowdown in the IT sector, and higher interest rates have capped returns.
But from a REIT-wide perspective, one of the biggest problems has been rising interest rates. Rising interest rates impact REITs in a number of ways. Directly, interest expenses can go up as the interest rates on variable-coupon debt increase and as fixed-rate debt rolls over.
Direct real estate offers more tax breaks than REIT investments, and gives investors more control over decision making. Many REITs are publicly traded on exchanges, so they're easier to buy and sell than traditional real estate.
It is generally accurate to say that individual Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are less likely to go to zero compared to individual stocks, primarily because REITs are invested in real estate properties and real estate typically retains some non-zero value.
Will REITs crash if interest rates rise?
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns. This is because rising rates generally reflect improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.
To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
Whereas publicly traded REITs allow you to sell shares instantly whenever the market is open, the same isn't true for private REITs. Each company has its own rules when it comes to redemption of shares, and these can be very restrictive.
Since most non-traded REITs are illiquid, there are often restrictions to redeeming and selling shares. While a REIT is still open to public investors, investors may be able to sell their shares back to the REIT. However, this sale usually comes at a discount; leaving only about 70% to 95% of the original value.
