Why are REITs down 2024?
Real estate stocks have been a bust so far in 2024. The rate-sensitive sector has underperformed the broader stock market this month as investors worry the Federal Reserve won't bring down the cost of borrowing as quickly as markets hope.
But despite that, most REITs have kept growing their dividend. Most of them hiked in 2022, 2023, and will hike again in 2024. This is the ultimate proof that REITs are doing better than what the market appears to believe.
In fact, REIT total returns bounced back with impressive performance in the last quarter of 2023. Based on historical experience, the convergence of the wide valuation gap between public and private real estate will likely ensure continued REIT outperformance into 2024.
Key 2024 Outlook themes:
Normalization: extreme post-pandemic highs and lows in the property sectors will transition back to historical trend lines and offer more predictable outcomes. Debt in the spotlight: real estate credit strategies will remain in focus amid an elevated interest rate environment.
Mumbai: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) listed on domestic stock exchanges have largely been forgettable bets for many investors in 2023 so far as a delay in the pick-up in commercial real estate, a slowdown in the IT sector, and higher interest rates have capped returns.
What this means is that REITs are ideal borrowers for banks. They are exactly who they want to do business with because they know that the risk of a REIT bankruptcy is extremely low. Just look at the past. There have been very few REIT bankruptcies over the past 50+ years.
REIT 12 Months Forecast
Based on 31 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets to REIT holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $28.05 with a high forecast of $31.48 and a low forecast of $24.01. The average price target represents a 13.04% change from the last price of $24.81.
But from a REIT-wide perspective, one of the biggest problems has been rising interest rates. Rising interest rates impact REITs in a number of ways. Directly, interest expenses can go up as the interest rates on variable-coupon debt increase and as fixed-rate debt rolls over.
Risks of investing in REITs include higher dividend taxes, sensitivity to interest rates, and exposure to specific property trends.
After looking at correlation patterns and historical data, it appears that returns from REITs vary during different interest rate periods, but for the most part have shown a positive correlation during increasing interest rates.
Should I sell now or wait until 2024?
Best Time to Sell Your House for a Higher Price
April, June, and July are the best months to sell your house in California. The median sale price of houses in June 2023, was $796,400, which is expected to grow more in 2024. However, cities like Arcadia and San Mateo follow an upward trend throughout the year.
Yes. This is the best time to buy a house in California. With the current trend in the CA housing market, you'll find better deals on your dream home during Q2 2024. As per Fannie Mae, mortgage rates may drop more in Q2 of 2024 due to economic changes, inflation, and central bank policy adjustments.
There probably won't be a housing recession in 2024 based on current expectations, as limited inventory is likely to push prices up further. Expect to see higher prices, lower mortgage rates, and more buyers in 2024.
For purposes of the REIT income tests, a non-qualified hedge will produce income that is included in the denominator, but not the numerator. This is generally referred to as “bad” REIT income because it reduces the fraction and makes it more difficult to meet the tests.
Some of the main risk factors associated with REITs include leverage risk, liquidity risk, and market risk.
Key Points. REITs have outperformed stocks on 20-to-50-year horizons. Most REITs are less volatile than the S&P 500, with some only half as volatile as the market at large.
It is generally accurate to say that individual Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are less likely to go to zero compared to individual stocks, primarily because REITs are invested in real estate properties and real estate typically retains some non-zero value.
In most cases, REITs utilize a combination of debt and equity to purchase a property. As such, they are more sensitive than other asset classes to changes in interest rates., particularly those that use variable rate debt. When interest rates rise, REITs share prices can be prone to volatility.
Higher interest rates pose a problem for Realty Income
First, like most REITs, Realty Income relies on borrowing money to buy new properties and expand its business. As borrowing costs go up through higher interest rates, it becomes more expensive for the company to finance its expansions.
How to Qualify as a REIT? To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
What is a good amount to invest in REIT?
According to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit), non-traded REITs typically require a minimum investment of $1,000 to $2,500.
They historically offer competitive long-term performance, with consistent returns compared to stocks and bonds. REITs provide attractive income through dividends, liquidity, transparency, and diversification, enhancing risk-adjusted returns.
A lot of REIT investors focus too way much on the dividend yield. They think that a high dividend yield implies that a REIT is cheap and a good investment opportunity. In reality, it is often the opposite, and the dividend does not say much, if anything, about the valuation of a REIT.
Can You Lose Money on a REIT? As with any investment, there is always a risk of loss. Publicly traded REITs have the particular risk of losing value as interest rates rise, which typically sends investment capital into bonds.
A successful and busy professional: Property ownership could be costly or infeasible if you don't have time to deal with tenants or maintenance, so passively investing is likely the right choice, as REITs minimize time and effort while improving risk-adjusted returns in a mixed-asset portfolio.
